Since Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996, cross-strait relations have consistently taken center stage. China’s approach to influencing these elections has evolved from direct military threats to economic appeals, disinformation campaigns, and trade retaliation. Despite changing tactics, one constant remains—the Chinese government’s disregard for mainstream Taiwanese opinions.
In the seven presidential elections held in Taiwan so far, leaders such as Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, Ma Ying-jeou, and Tsai Ing-wen have been elected. As the countdown begins for the 2024 election, it is essential to examine China’s attempts to shape the outcomes of these elections.
1996: Missile Tests and Verbal Attacks
In the third Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1996, China escalated tensions by conducting missile tests just before the election. Chinese leaders, including Jiang Zemin, openly criticized Lee Teng-hui, accusing him of pushing for Taiwan’s independence. The missile tests were a strategic move to influence Taiwan’s post-election policies. Lee Teng-hui was re-elected as president, but his re-election was not in China’s favor.
2000: White Paper and Economic Appeals
In 2000, facing the possibility of a DPP-led government, China issued a White Paper outlining conditions for using force, emphasizing the importance of the “One China” principle. Hu Jintao, who had assumed leadership, adopted a softer approach, reaching out to Taiwanese business leaders in an effort to foster economic cooperation. Chen Shui-bian(DPP) won the election, and this was not China’s preferred outcome.
Chen Shui-bian’s election as the first non-KMT president marked a significant turning point, symbolizing a shift in Taiwanese politics. The KMT’s historical dominance was challenged, and the DPP’s rise to power introduced a new era. These developments set the stage for future cross-strait relations, shaping the dynamics between Taiwan and China in the years to come.
2004: Diplomatic Pressure and Economic Leverage
With Hu Jintao still in power, the 2004 election saw increased diplomatic pressure and economic incentives aimed at Taiwan. Hu personally met with Taiwanese business leaders, emphasizing a shared Chinese identity while opposing Taiwan independence. China also pressured France to discourage Taiwan’s referendum efforts. Chen Shui-bian was re-elected, and again, this outcome was not in China’s favor.
2008: Hu Jintao’s “Warmth” and Peaceful Dialogue
In the 2008 election, China, under Hu Jintao, toned down military threats and adopted a more conciliatory tone. Hu expressed a willingness to engage in peaceful dialogue and negotiate under the “One China” principle, emphasizing the importance of a peaceful agreement to end hostilities. Ma Ying-jeou won the election, and this result was more aligned with China’s preferences.
2012: Emphasis on Economic Cooperation
In 2012, China’s leaders focused on promoting economic ties and cultural exchanges. Xi Jinping, who had spent 17 years in Fujian, a province close to Taiwan, was seen as someone familiar with the region. Efforts were made to create a warm environment for cross-strait relations. Ma Ying-jeou was re-elected, and China welcomed this outcome.
2016: The “92 Consensus” and The Tzuyu Incident
Leading up to the 2016 election, Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou had a historic meeting, emphasizing the closeness of the two sides. However, Chinese officials later insisted on the importance of the “92 Consensus” and opposition to Taiwan independence, highlighting the fragility of peaceful development without these principles. Tsai Ing-wen won the election, and this was not China’s preferred result.In
Late 2015, TWICE member Tzuyu sparked controversy by waving the Republic of China flag on a South Korean TV show. China pressured her Korean agency, JYP Entertainment, leading to Tzuyu issuing a public apology video. At just 16, her apologetic demeanor ignited public outrage in Taiwan. Amid the presidential election, sympathy towards Tzuyu was seen as a factor that possibly influenced the 2016 results. This incident swayed sentiments, contributing to the significant victory for DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen, as Taiwanese voters rallied against perceived Chinese interference.
2020: Hybrid Warfare and Disinformation Campaigns
In 2020, Xi Jinping introduced the “Xi Five Points” policy, exploring the “One Country, Two Systems” model for Taiwan. China engaged in a comprehensive disinformation campaign, attempting to manipulate social media and spread fake news. Taiwan faced military drills, restrictions on tourism, and diplomatic isolation. Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected, and this outcome was contrary to China’s preferences.
2024: Economic Retaliation
As the 2024 election approaches, China has shifted towards economic retaliation, conducting trade barrier investigations and imposing tariffs. This strategy, coupled with previous tactics, demonstrates a nuanced approach to manipulating public opinion. The outcome of the 2024 election is yet to be determined, and China’s stance remains uncertain.
From military threats to online warfare and economic reprisals, China’s interference in Taiwan’s elections has evolved, but the common thread is a persistent disregard for the will of the Taiwanese people and their commitment to sovereignty and democratic values.